Indiana Senate Race Getting National Attention

Shailagh Murray of The Washington Post has an interesting article today about the Coats/Ellsworth Senate battle for Evan Bayh’s vacant seat. The piece focuses on Ellsworth, and raises some real questions regarding whether or not he can overcome Coats’ early lead in the polls, or gain some much-needed name recognition by November.

Ellsworth, 51, has taken few legislative risks during his two House terms, sticking mainly to local interests. He ensured Indiana hardwoods were included as eligible materials for green building incentives in the stimulus bill. He helped to remove federal barriers that restricted the yields of Indiana tomato growers. He secured funding to improve the lock system on the Ohio River.

At the state fair, Ellsworth met local pork industry officials over a lunch of "garbage burgers," pork patties topped with pulled pork barbecue, and got an earful about a stalled trade agreement with South Korea that is worth about $10 per hog for Hoosier farmers. The officials didn’t understand why the Obama administration couldn’t get the deal done.

"I hear you," the congressman reassured Michael Platt, executive director of Indiana Pork. "But you’re seeing more and more Democrats open to trade agreements, provided they’re fair to American workers."

Ellsworth supported three pillars of the Democratic agenda – health care, the stimulus and the financial regulatory overhaul – but voted against the climate-change bill that passed the House last summer. He opposes abortion and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. He won the endorsement of the National Rifle Association over Coats, who supported several gun-control measures during his tenure in Congress.

He favors extending the full menu of 2001 tax cuts that are scheduled to expire at the end of the year, including preserving lower rates for the top income brackets – a position that could put him at odds with Democratic leaders and the White House.

"In this fragile economy, although they did add to the national debt, now is not the time," Ellsworth said of the taxes in an interview last week between campaign events.

Yet he does not shy from his party affiliation. "We Democrats have nothing to be ashamed of," Ellsworth told 35 Democratic activists who assembled in Indianapolis on a hot weekday afternoon in August for campaign training. The dingy room was cluttered with binders, water bottles and telephone lines, the signs of a busy election office. Canvassing guidelines taped to the wall instructed volunteers to "knock and take a step back" and "bring dog treats."

So what do you think? Will party trending hurt Ellsworth in November? Does he have a shot to win?

Pelosi Facing Bite from Blue Dogs?

The Democratic Blue Dog Coalition has been a rather enigmatic lot in recent years. And its members get grief from liberals for being too conservative and/or too corporate, yet Indiana’s Blue Dog Congressmen (Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly, etc.) are constantly blasted in the conservative blogosphere for being — pardon me for this — "lapdogs" for the Obama administration.

But now, it seems Speaker Pelosi may be taking genuine heat from this caucus. Roll Call explains:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has made passing a jobs agenda her top priority this year, but an anti-deficit insurgency led by Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), the administrative co-chairwoman of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition, has forced Pelosi to scale back her ambitions.

With concerns about deficits rising and rank-and-file Democrats fearing losses in November, Blue Dog clout has soared in recent weeks, and liberal priorities from health care benefits for the jobless to tens of billions of dollars in aid to the states have ended up on the chopping block. In the tumult, Herseth Sandlin has emerged to head a new generation of Blue Dogs as old-guard members such as Rep. John Tanner (D-Tenn.) are heading for the exits or lowering their profiles.

The pivotal moment came shortly before the Memorial Day recess, with Pelosi planning to push through a nearly $200 billion package of tax cut extensions, doctor payments, jobless benefits and state aid. But Herseth Sandlin warned the measure didn’t have the votes and would have to be trimmed significantly.

“While we’ve been invited to share our concerns and leadership has listened, not everyone is hearing us,” she told reporters at the time.

Within a day, Democratic leaders were forced to carve their bill nearly in half in a mad scramble for votes.

And this week, the leadership’s plans for a war spending bill had to be cut back in the face of demands from Blue Dogs that add-on aid for states and money for the Pell Grant program be fully offset. The bill will include just $10 billion to prevent teacher layoffs — less than half the amount sought by leadership and President Barack Obama…

Blue Dogs won another victory in this year’s budget battles by extracting a $7 billion cut from Obama’s budget request — a level that will likely force cuts to some domestic spending programs treasured by liberals.

So what do you think? Genuine uproar within the party that could alter its platform, or just contrived friction that will ultimately mean nothing?

UPDATE: Also discovered this article, contemplating a possible Blue Dog coup to overtake Pelosi’s speakership. Doesn’t seem likely, but an interesting thought.

Winston: 2010 Primary Season is One of New Courses

Robin Winston is a former Indiana Democratic Party Chairman, and his political commentary has been sought after by many in local media, including "Indiana Week in Review" on WFYI-TV.

This is a unique primary season because so much attention has been focused on the initiatives of President Obama. The President has charted a positive course for our nation to address a myriad of issues, including stimulating our economy, rebuilding our infrastructure, investing in education and finally addressing health care. 

A record number of Republican candidates are seeking open seats in Congressional Districts in Central Indiana. Some of those candidates represent truly divergent interests for the GOP.  May 4 will offer an opportunity to determine the strength of candidates espousing the views of “Tea Party” supporters. If successful, the Tea Party-backed candidates will change the dynamic of the GOP. If not, it will be interesting to see if they back Republican candidates in the fall.

Our party is fortunate to have Brad Ellsworth running for the U.S. Senate. A moderate and a pro-life and pro-gun Democrat, Ellsworth will bring common sense to the chaos in Washington. He has served as an Indiana sheriff longer than as a member of Congress and knows that Washington is not working for the American people. 

A few weeks ago, I joined Congressman Ellsworth for lunch and found him to be open, modest and self-deprecating. He is the epitome of a hard-working, middle-income Hoosier. He keenly understands the need for Washington to work for our interests. His past experience as a sheriff taught him that doing what is right is more important than scoring political points. That’s why he’ll work to build consensus and be an independent voice working for Hoosiers. 

Once Hoosiers get to know Brad and know more about his positions on the issues, I am confident that they will vote for him as an excellent successor to Senator Evan Bayh.

On a final note, please vote on May 4.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: Out of respect for our guest bloggers, we will not be allowing anonymous comments on their blogs this week. Additionally, the Indiana Chamber does not necessarily share the opinions of our guest bloggers.

Primarily Speaking, It’s a Crucial Voting Period

Primaries have always been my favorite. In most districts, the primary election is the election that will decide who gets to raise his or her right hand and take office. The pressure is generally more intense and often more personal given that the political parties see them as “their fights.” Not us. We represent the business community (employers and employees) and recognize the opportunities presented by a good primary fight no matter the party. Primaries are usually the best, if not only, chance to take out many of those incumbents who say they are pro-business, but their voting record and actions indicate otherwise.

Just a few months ago, the only race in town was for control of the Indiana House. With only eight days to go until the last day of the primary election voting season, there are several others that are just as compelling. What was once a cakewalk U.S. Senate re-election race for Evan Bayh has turned into a competitive Republican primary that people are paying close attention to and a November contest that will be one of the most watched in the country. There are highly competitive primaries in the fourth, fifth, eighth and ninth Congressional districts. And of course, there are a bevy of state legislative primaries that are hotly contested.

After the 2008 failure of the political parties to recruit enough pro-jobs, pro-economic development candidates, (even leaving several competitive districts uncontested), we decided to fully implement our own candidate recruitment and development program. Since December 2008, we have met with well over 100 potential candidates and recruited several who decided to run.  Following this effort, Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG) is now leading or playing a significant role in no less than seven highly competitive Indiana General Assembly primaries.  

This post kicks off an impressive lineup of guest bloggers we have assembled this week. They include state chairmen, a former state chairman, media representatives, popular Indiana bloggers and leaders/communicators from the state’s largest three political parties.

Please check back this afternoon as one of the most insightful and respected individuals in Hoosier politics weighs in. Robin Winston is a former Democratic state chairman, Indiana Week in Review panelist and key strategist for Hoosier Democrats. Grab a nice hot tea or caffeinated drink of your choice and enjoy. I certainly will.

Indiana Democrat Starts Facebook Movement to Choose Bayh’s Replacement

Sen. Evan Bayh’s surprising move last week to announce he was not running for re-election was stunning, even to many most familiar with Indiana politics. However, the timing of said move (just before the candidate filing deadline) struck some the wrong way, even in his own party. The Democrats’ inability to field a candidate via signatures leaves the ultimate decision to the party’s State Chair and Central Committee. Janette Surrisi, a Democrat in Culver, has started a Facebook group (which has 55 members as of this writing) to rally state Dems in demanding that convention delegates be the ultimate deciders. In an e-mail, she writes:

The people of Indiana deserve to choose the democratic candidate for Evan Bayh’s senate seat. Evan Bayh announced only a day before the deadline to get on the primary ballot that he would not be running for election in 2010. Many speculate that the timing was a political maneuver to make sure that the Indiana Democratic Chairperson and Central Committee could hand pick the candidate of choice for the senate seat and in doing so leave many primary voters in the cold.

To remedy this, we believe that the more than 2,000 Indiana Democratic State Convention Delegates should pick the candidate for Bayh’s seat. Delegates are elected in the primary to go to convention. If not enough candidates are elected to delegate spots, county party chairman can appoint citizens of the party to the position. Currently, democratic delegates pick their Secretary of State, State Auditor, and State Treasurer candidates at convention.

We petition that Dan Parker and the Indiana Democratic Party Central Committee allow the delegates to vote for the democratic senator candidate at convention in June. We believe that the candidate that earns the most votes from the delegates should be named by the Central Committee as the candidate on the ballot for the democrats in November.

This group is dedicated to giving Indiana voters a voice. All voters Democrat, Republican, or Independent deserve to pick their candidates.

The Roller Coaster Ride of Candidate Filing Comes to a Close

Even though we have been heavily involved in candidate recruitment this election cycle, the candidate filing period was full of surprises and plenty of candidates wanting to serve Indiana at the Indiana Statehouse and the U.S. Capitol.

Here is the complete list of filings (PDF).

We will write more analysis next week, but here are some early highlights:

  • Eighty-three candidates filed for U.S. Senate or U.S. House of Representatives. Someone pull out the history book and tell me the last time the party holding an open U.S. Senate seat did not have a candidate on the primary ballot.
  • U.S. Senator Bayh, Congressman Steve Buyer and Congressman Brad Ellsworth will not be returning to Washington in their current seat. Ellsworth is vacating his congressional seat for a run at the open U.S. Senate seat.
  • The early scoreboard on the race for control of the Indiana House is 30-11 for the Republicans. There are 30 districts currently held by a Republican without a Democratic challenger and 11 uncontested for the Democrats. Each party has until June 30 to fill a ballot vacancy for the general election.
  • The Senate scoreboard is 23-10 for the Republicans. This includes seats not up until 2012 (Republicans control 18 of those 25 seats).
  • There are eight contested primaries in the Senate. Three are on the Democratic side and five on the Republican side.
  • There are 38 contested primaries in the House. Ten are on the Democratic side and 28 on the Republican side.
  • Sue Errington and John Waterman are the only two incumbent senators with a primary.
  • There are 19 House incumbents with a primary: Charlie Brown, Dan Stevenson, Chet Dobis, Don Lehe, Doug Gutwein, David Wolkins, Shelli VanDenburgh, Tom Dermody, Bill Ruppel, Bill Friend, Jack Lutz, Jacque Clements, Tim Brown, Dan Leonard, Dick Dodge, Tom Knollman, Woody Burton, Phyllis Pond and Mary Ann Sullivan.
  • There were a total of 263 candidates that filed for the Indiana General Assembly.
  • Only 17.1% of the candidates were women.

Look for more analysis over the next several days on candidate filings. Please feel free to add to the conversation and post your comments or questions.

An Early Look at the 2010 Congressional Vote

Politicos tell us it’s never too early to look ahead to the next election. Washington’s CQ Politics does so for Congress, rating 100 House districts in play in some form in the 2010 mid-term elections.

CQ has eight of Indiana’s nine incumbents in the safe category. They are Visclosky, Donnelly, Carson and Ellsworth on the Dems’ side, and Souder, Buyer, Burton and Pence for the Republicans. Baron Hill (9th District) is in the Democrat Favored listing.

Key items to watch, according to CQ:

  • Democrats will likely lose a portion of their 256-178 (one current opening) advantage. The party in charge of the White House typically loses seats during the first mid-term vote (although the GOP and President Bush were an exception in 2002)
  • Swing seats will be a big focus. In 49 districts, voters favored John McCain for president but elected a Democrat to the House; conversely, 34 districsts backed President Obama but put a Republican in the House
  • Of the 100 seats rated competitive, 59 are held by Democrats. Only three are viewed as toss-ups, a slightly higher numbers as highly competitive and the majority as slightly competitive

Much can change, however, over the next 15 months.

“Climate Change” Bill Passes U.S. House

The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 passed the House this evening, 219-212.

Here’s how Indiana’s Congressmen voted (See all votes here):

Democrats
Carson – Yes
Donnelly – No
Ellsworth – No
Hill – Yes
Visclosky – No

Republicans
Burton – No
Buyer – No
Pence – No
Souder – No

Hat tip to Hoosier Access for getting votes up promptly.

No Indiana Reps Among Top Targets — At This Time

In 2006, three Indiana congressional seats went from the Republican side of the ledger to the Democrat column. For those straining to remember, that was Donnelly over Chocola in District 2, Ellsworth topping Hostettler in District 8 and Hill over Sodrel (the third of their four straight matchups) in District 9.

That was part of a 31-seat gain the House for Democrats, the largest increase for one party since 1974. It did, however, continue a trend of the sitting president’s political party losing ground in the mid-term election. In 2008, by the way, there were no changes in Indiana’s delegation.

The early national targets are out for 2010, and no Hoosier incumbents are included. That is the situation today. Who knows what might change in the next 17 months.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified the following as potential pickup opportunities: Michael Castle of Delaware, Bill Young of Florida, Joseph Cao of Louisiana, Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan and Jim Gerlach of Pennsylania.

On the GOP side, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s top Democrat targets are: Walter Minnick of Idaho, Frank Kratovil of Maryland, New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter, Steve Driehaus of Ohio, and Virginia’s Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello.

Obama’s Budget Passes, Indiana Chamber Opposes

The U.S. House passed the budget on a party-line vote Thursday night, 233-196; later the Senate passed a modified version 55-43 with two Democrats joining all 41 Republicans in opposition. Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Shirkieville) was one of the two.

This budget calls for approximately $4 trillion in expenditures in a single year, or nearly 29% of our country’s gross domestic product (GDP). According to Congressional Budget Office estimates, the Obama Administration’s budget blueprint, if followed, would double the national debt in five years and nearly triple it by 2019 – a point at which America’s federal debt would equal 82% of GDP.

The Indiana Chamber adamantly opposes such irresponsible spending, as well as many of the specific programs and tax increases included in the president’s proposal and urged the entire Indiana congressional delegation to reject the president’s proposal and adopt a more fiscally restrained, responsible alternative.

In addition to unsustainable spending and unacceptable levels of public indebtedness, President Obama’s budget would radically alter the federal government’s relationship to its citizens through expansive new proposals regarding taxation, energy, environmental regulation and health care. Hoosiers are looking for a common-sense solution to restore the economy, not an expansive overhaul of federal government programs. Increasing taxes as a means to finance new federal spending on health care reform, Medicare and energy policy resulting in the country’s largest government expansion in decades is the wrong answer at the wrong time. The country simply cannot afford a budget this out-sized, nor can we expect small businesses to invest in the economy or employ workers while their livelihoods are threatened by tax hikes and federal intervention across numerous markets and industries.

The Indiana Chamber is alarmed at the sheer size of the president’s proposal and what it portends for the future of free enterprise, job creation and economic growth in our country.

HOW THEY VOTED:  Within Indiana’s Congressional delegation, Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republicans Dan Burton, Steve Buyer, Mike Pence and Mark Souder voted against the budget plan. Democrats Andre Carson, Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill and Pete Visclosky voted in favor. In the Senate, both Republican Richard Lugar and Democrat Evan Bayh voted against.