Strange Criteria for Picking a Super Bowl Winner

This week, there’s a lot of talk about the passing prowess of Aaron Rodgers and the closing speed of Troy Polamalu. But if you’re looking to capitalize on a friendly Super Bowl wager this weekend, it seems unemployment rate may be as important as anything in predicting a winner. Yes, it’s bizarre, but the team from the city with the lowest jobless rate has won 16 of the last 20 games. RiseSmart reports:

Could a city’s economic prosperity, as measured by employment level, make a difference in its team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl?  Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that it does.  According to a new analysis by RiseSmart, the team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower jobless rate has won 16 of the past 20 Super Bowls – an 80 percent success rate.  

Based on this historical correlation, the Green Bay Packers should be the favorite to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.   Through November, the 2010 unemployment rate for the Green Bay metro area was 7.7 percent, compared to 8.1 percent for the Pittsburgh metro area. 

On January 27, 1991, the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV, despite the New York City metro area having a higher 1990 jobless rate than Buffalo.  After that game, however, the Super Bowl winning city had lower unemployment in 16 of the next 19 contests, including Super Bowl XLIV, in which New Orleans (6.7 percent 2009 unemployment) defeated Indianapolis (8.4 percent). 

Other facts of note:

  • On the six previous occasions that both teams’ metro areas have had unemployment greater than 5.5 percent — as is the case this year — the team from the metro area with the lower jobless rate has won in every instance.  

  • This is the first Super Bowl in the past two decades in which both teams hail from metro areas with jobless rates exceeding 7 percent.  On the four previous occasions that one team represented a city with 7+ percent unemployment, it lost the Super Bowl in every instance.

  • Since 1991, Super Bowl winning metro areas have had an average annual unemployment rate the prior year of 4.8 percent, compared to 5.4 percent for Super Bowl losing metro areas.

“Unemployment is the No. 1 issue in America today, and that will be true on Super Bowl Sunday as well,” said Sanjay Sathe, CEO of RiseSmart, a provider of next-generation outplacement and recruitment solutions. 

“In weighing the meaning of this analysis, correlation doesn’t imply causation, of course. But you could argue that a fan base with lower unemployment is more likely to attend games, buy team gear, celebrate at sports bars and, ultimately, cheer their team on to victory.  By contrast, a metro area that is struggling with high unemployment might have a subtle but insidious effect on its team’s morale,” Sathe said.

Super Bowl: Winner – Jobless Rate; Loser – Jobless Rate
1991: NY Giants – 5.5; Buffalo – 5.3
1992: Washington – 4.6; Buffalo – 7.2
1993: Dallas – 6.9; Buffalo – 7.5
1994: Dallas – 6.1; Buffalo – 6.8
1995: San Francisco – 5.9; San Diego – 7.1
1996: Dallas – 4.8; Pittsburgh – 6.0
1997: Green Bay – 3.4; New England – 4.1
1998: Denver – 2.9; Green Bay – 3.3
1999: Denver – 2.9; Atlanta – 3.3
2000: St. Louis – 3.5; Tennessee – 2.9
2001: Baltimore – 3.8; NY Giants – 4.4
2002: New England – 3.6; St. Louis – 4.6
2003: Tampa Bay – 5.6; Oakland – 6.2
2004: New England – 5.7; Carolina – 6.3
2005: New England – 5.0; Philadelphia – 5.1
2006: Pittsburgh – 5.2; Seattle – 5.0
2007: Indianapolis – 4.4; Chicago – 4.5
2008: NY Giants – 4.4; New England – 4.1
2009: Pittsburgh – 5.1; Arizona – 5.3
2010: New Orleans – 6.7; Indianapolis – 8.4

Note: Jobless rates are for year prior to Super Bowl year.  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Green & Gold Paint Thicker Than Water

The Heartland Institute’s "Lawsuit Abuse Fortnightly" newsletter was recently released. You should read the whole thing, but we’ll feature this gem about some serious Green Bay Packers fans. Also, lawsuit aside, kudos to the Packers for a lifetime of some serious branding success. A waiting list of nearly 75,000? Is this Lambeau Field or Heaven?

Forget the issue of who gets the family jewels when dear old Dad kicks the bucket. In Wisconsin, the more important question is who gets the Green Bay Packers tickets.

Two brothers are currently embroiled in a court battle over 13 midfield Packers season tickets. Their father left the tickets to one brother but stipulated the brothers were to share any proceeds from scalping them, allegedly worth about $250 to $300 per game per ticket. The brother without possession of the football tickets claims in court the tickets really belong to both of them.

The Packers are among some NFL franchise teams designating season tickets as family property. The tickets rarely go on the market, and there is a multi-millennium-long waiting list. “For instance, if you put your name on the waiting list today, you would be number 74,659,” Sports Illustrated noted a few years ago. “An average of 70 people give up their tickets every year, which means you’ll have your tickets by the 3074 season. Luckily you’ll still catch Brett Favre’s last year.”