Tag Archives: romney

Speculation Time: GOP Primary Scenarios

Posted on by
Reply

After his narrow Iowa victory, Mitt Romney appears to be the most likely choice to garner the GOP presidential nomination. However, due to the fact that many conservatives simply don’t like him, that’s far from a certainty. CNN has an intriguing article outlining the different possibilities of how things will play out from this point on. Read the entire piece, but I have to run this portion for the die-hard Mitch Daniels enthusiasts out there:

(3) The long shot: Someone else enters the campaign (10% chance or less). Normally, this late in the game, a new entrant to the contest would be the stuff of science fiction. But conservative voters seem to be singularly dismayed by the choices in front of them: as CNN’s Erick Erickson tweeted last night, "Typical of email I’m getting: ‘If you put a gun to my head and said Romney or Santorum I would say pull the trigger.’"

Who would step into the fray? One hears voters pining for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (unlikely to join, especially after endorsing Romney) and some have floated Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (who endorsed Perry). Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would be a strong candidate, but that may be a tough sell to Bushed-out voters only four years after the conclusion of his brother’s presidency.

Would a candidate who jumped in this late even have a path to victory? Perhaps. The early primaries and caucuses are richer in symbolic significance than they are in delegates, especially with the new rules prohibiting winner-take-all allotment of delegates in the early states. And even with such a late jump on fundraising and organization-building, a candidate who was able to rack up a string of impressive victories in the middle- and later-term primaries could theoretically build up a big enough head of steam to take the convention by storm while making use of the Internet and earned (read: free) media coverage to play catch-up on money and organization.

The late-entrant scenario is still a dark horse at best, but even the fact that it’s within the realm of possibility underscores the reason Democrats are quietly cheering last night’s outcome: the GOP is still, at best, a party that’s looking for a standard-bearer — or, more dangerously for their 2012 prospects, a disunited collection of smaller groups of voters still pushing their own.

Indiana Could be Factor in GOP Primary

Posted on by
Reply

Whether in support of Romney, Gingrich, or even Paul, Indiana Republicans and primary crossovers could play a key role in deciding who the 2012 GOP presidential nominee will be. The Times of Northwest Indiana reports how:

The early presidential caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be the center of the Republican Party’s world next month, but Indiana’s May 8 primary could prove more important.

Republican Party rule changes, penalties for early primary states, and candidates with enough money and supporters to remain in the race may all combine to give Indiana Republicans a taste of the campaign fun Democrats enjoyed in 2008.

Gov. Mitch Daniels is among the Hoosier Republicans rooting for a drawn-out nominating process.

"One can conjure a scenario … that might lead to a situation that’s still in play when May gets here, and that’d be terrific," Daniels said. "I thought it was so great when it mattered on the Democratic side last time."

Republicans changed their rules for awarding convention delegates last year hoping to capture the excitement Democrats had as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled for months to win the nomination in 2008.

As a result, most early primary states in 2012 will award convention delegates proportionately, based on a candidate’s share of the state’s primary vote, instead of winner-take-all.

In addition, five states that moved their primaries to before March 1 were penalized by the GOP and lost half their delegates.

That means the minimum 1,142 delegates needed for nomination won’t be selected until March 24 and no candidate is likely to win every one of them, putting later primary states with a lot of delegates, such as Indiana’s 46, in play.

Jesse Benton, campaign manager for Ron Paul, said the Texas congressman will strategically compete for delegates throughout the primary process.

"Our campaign has a comprehensive plan to win the delegates needed to either secure the nomination or enter into a brokered convention in Tampa," Benton told POLITICO.

The last time a Republican convention opened without the front-runner in control of enough delegates to win the nomination was 1976 when Ronald Reagan tried to wrest the GOP nomination from President Gerald Ford. Ford lost in the general election that year to Jimmy Carter.

Daniels, who briefly considered running for president earlier this year, believes a brokered convention might not be all bad, even though intra-party fights tend to turn off undecided general election voters.

"At a time when the country is facing just terribly consequential issues, if it led to a good healthy debate about not merely personalities but about what kind of program of change to bring to America, I could convince myself it’s not the worst outcome," Daniels said.

The term-limited governor said he won’t be throwing his hat in the ring at a brokered convention, but he’d enjoy watching it.

"I’ve always said the greatest spectator sport, forget the Super Bowl, if either party ever had a truly deliberative convention in the mini-camera world, it would be spectacular," Daniels said.

Not all Republicans believe the nomination will be up in the air when their convention begins Aug. 27.

Schererville Republican Dan Dumezich, who is leading Mitt Romney’s Indiana campaign, is confident the former Massachusetts governor will have the nomination locked up.

"I think we’re going to have an answer a lot sooner than most people think," Dumezich said. "I’m hoping we have one by January 31."

Poll: GOP Frontrunner Still Missing

Posted on by
Reply

The results of our most recent poll question seem to adequately reflect the current state of the Republican race for president — a lot of choices with little consensus.

We asked your favorite on the GOP side. Mitt Romney (33%) and Herman Cain (25% with more than a few of those votes received prior to his recent difficulties) led the way. Third was "other" with Jon Huntsman, none of the above, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and a few others showing up in that category.

Among remaining choices: Ron Paul (11%), Rick Perry (5%) and Michele Bachmann (3%). In other words, it’s still wait and see on how this one will play out in early 2012.

We keep the focus on Washington with our new question. Vote (upper right) on the following:

What would you most like to receive from Washington as an early (or late) holiday present?

  • “Do-over” on health care reform
  • Moratoirum on new federal regulations
  • Simpler tax process
  • Solid plan to reduce debt
  • Other

Republicans Slow to Endorse This Year

Posted on by
Reply

I’m sure you’re as baffled as I am as to why GOP Congressmen aren’t exactly chomping at the bit to endorse the likes of Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann or Rick Santorum (sarcasm intended). But here’s an interesting article from The Washington Post about how things are unfolding a little more slowly on that front for 2012:

Across the country, most Republicans haven’t committed fully to any of the party’s presidential candidates. In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, 69 percent on the GOP side said there was still a chance they could change their minds about their choice.

In Washington, an elite focus group of 289 Republicans was even more indecisive.

That group consists of the GOP members of the House and Senate, of whom just 60 — or 21 percent — have publicly endorsed a presidential candidate, according to a list maintained by the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call.

The lawns of Iowa and New Hampshire are still covered mostly with leaves, not snow, so lawmakers have some time left to choose a side. But the endorsement pace has been much slower than it was during the last election cycle.

Across the country, most Republicans haven’t committed fully to any of the party’s presidential candidates. In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, 69 percent on the GOP side said there was still a chance they could change their minds about their choice.

In Washington, an elite focus group of 289 Republicans was even more indecisive.

As of Nov. 9, 2007, 107 Hill Republicans — 43 percent of the total then serving — had offered their endorsements to a White House contender, according to a Roll Call tally at the time.

The current list includes 36 endorsements for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 14 for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, six for ex-House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), three for Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) and one for businessman Herman Cain. That total does not include Paul himself, although his preference appears clear. The same is true for Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.).

Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr. and ex-senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) have yet to receive any Capitol Hill endorsements.

Four years ago, Romney led the way with a similar number, 33, followed by Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) with 29, ex-New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani with 24 and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) with 21.

Will GOP Voters Be Cheering for “My Man… Tim?”

Posted on by
Reply

With Gov. Daniels out of the running for the presidency, candidates seem to be scrambling to fill the void of "calm, sober guy who can manage budgets." According to a recent article in the Daily Caller, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty appears to be vying hardest to be "the other Mitch Daniels."

In a Facebook town hall Tuesday, presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty positioned himself as the logical alternative to Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who announced on Sunday that he would not enter the race for the White House…

Then the former Minnesota governor took one question on the subject of his education policies.

“In the state of Indiana, our governor has been really hard on teachers,” asked one girl. “What is your view of education?”

Pawlenty voiced a position on education similar to the reforms passed by Daniels in the last Indiana legislative session: school choice and vouchers, support for charter schools, and saying that education policy should be geared to help children and should “put their needs first, rather than the interests of adults in public employee union movement.”

The choice of the question seemed deliberate, as a way to position Pawlenty as the natural alternative for Daniels’ supporters.

There was a marked contrast between Pawlenty’s presentation and the way another candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, conducted a Facebook town hall last week.

Pawlenty sat at a table in Florida in front of the U.S. flag and a state flag. He wore a suit and tie and read questions off his iPad, conveying a serious atmosphere and emphasizing his tech savvy.

Romney, who has been accused of being too stiff and buttoned down, wore a shirt during his town hall, with the top two buttons unbuttoned. The town hall took place in Nevada, and in the background were a number of people who had volunteered to make phone calls to fundraise for the former Massachusetts governor.

Pawlenty’s town hall seemed much more produced and polished. But despite the fact that a Facebook town hall is meant to convey the idea that anyone can have access to the candidate, it was clear that both chose their questions carefully.

Critics argue his past support of cap-and-trade legislation will hurt him in the GOP nomination — and they say his milquetoast delivery won’t go over well in primaries. What do you think?

Solving or Adding to the Health Care Headache?

Posted on by
Reply

Will President Obama’s goal of signing landmark health care reform legislation by October be realized? Cam Carter, the Indiana Chamber’s federal relations authority, says no. Mike Ripley, health care policy expert, offers that if it closely resembles what is currently being debated in Washington, he hopes not.

Carter and Ripley shared their perspective and answered questions from listeners during today’s Policy Issue Conference Call. If you want all the inside scoop and you’re a Chamber member, you need to listen (next up is K-12 education — charter schools, virtual charters and state scholarship tax credits, among other topics, on August 21). From today’s event, a few tidbits:

  • Millions and billions in Washington have given way to trillions. Conservatives are looking to bring "down" the cost of a reform package to the $1 trillion level. Early estimates on just pieces of the package are at $1.6 trillion and up
  • Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf popped a few balloons yesterday with his comment: "In the legislation that has been reported, we do not see the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a signficant amount and, on the contrary, the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs." Maybe that will give pause to some
  • Massachusetts, the state model of universal coverage with its program instituted by then Gov. Mitt Romney, has not worked out as intended with higher costs and lower reimbursement rates for providers causing friction
  • No fewer than five Congressional committees are currently weighing in with near total attention on this issue. Nevertheless, the deadlines of trying to get a bill through committees and floor debate before the August recess appear unreachable
  • The public plan option threatens the insurance industry as we know it

A Chamber member may have summed it up best when he questioned whether the proposals being bandied about are going to do anything to solve the problems with the health care system. That, of course, should be the bottom line litmus test of any plan.

The details and the dynamics are changing on an everyday basis. Stay tuned for more.