Bye, Bye Recession: You Heard It Here First

I’m not an economist, but I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in the past. See, sometimes those advertisements stick with you. But I digress. The reason for the opening line: I have no training or expertise for the following statement but here goes — the current recession will officially end (if it hasn’t already) within the next few months.

The evidence is anecdotal — more good news than bad in recent announcements (company relocations and expansions, government reports, important consumer confidence measurements, etc.). Total doom and gloom is giving way to a quiet and slowly building change of course.

Just like recession beginnings, however, the official end won’t be known until many months after the fact. Extensive job additions and the return of fluid capital markets won’t be evident until sometime in 2010. Unemployment rates won’t turn for the better for quite some time. It simply takes awhile for business reality to catch up.

If this proves to have even a small semblance of truth, don’t worry, I will remind you. If Washington politics, continued automaker woes or any other factors have me way off base, nevermind!

Editor’s note: Well, Tom, maybe you’re not so crazy after all.