IBRG Election Report: The Power of Democracy and a Nation of Change

ibrgIndiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the non-partisan political action program of the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, scored a very successful general election; 57 of 59 IBRG-endorsed candidates facing opposition were victorious, including Republicans and Democrats. Twenty additional endorsed candidates did not face general election challenges.

Eleven new legislators won with IBRG endorsements. IBRG was significantly engaged in support of five top-target candidates in open seat races, as well as successfully defending six pro-economy incumbents seriously challenged with defeat.

In a stunning Indiana election, Republicans swept all statewide races by significant margins, led by a 20 percentage point victory by Donald Trump. Not only wasn’t the scale of these win margins predicted in polling, but once again the final outcome defied expectations just months – even weeks – ago of a coming “market correction” in the GOP’s state legislative super-majority seat counts.

In the General Assembly, Republicans seriously exceeded expectations again in a volatile election environment. In the House, Democrats were able to pick-off just one first-term incumbent Republican legislator in Lake County (after an unprecedented multi-race battle in northwest Indiana for weeks), with the result being a 70-30 GOP majority next year.

In the Senate, Republicans actually managed to expand their majority by another seat to a 41-9 majority. They did so by defending two very competitive open seat races in Indianapolis and by picking up an open seat in LaPorte, largely by default from Democrats.

Twelve new members were elected to the House and nine new members to the Senate. One additional Senate seat will become vacant with a resignation and be filled by a local caucus later this year. This turnover in new seats rivals the huge numbers out of the 2010 and 2012 election cycles.

It seems that every national election in recent times has been labeled “historic” (among many other adjectives) before and after the votes are cast. Without question, the 2016 elections fit that label, but it’s really more than that. A fundamental realignment of the American electorate is well underway, driven by major upheavals and demographic shifts in this nation.

Read the full report. The report includes election results, statistics, and information on key races and new legislators. It will be updated periodically as final tallies and additional analyses are added.

Go Vote! Then Let’s Move from Politics to Policy

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Indiana Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Kevin Brinegar comments on the election aftermath:

“We probably have just witnessed the most bizarre and bruising election of our lifetimes. It’s critical to move on quickly from any bitterness of the campaigns or results and come together as a state and nation.

“We need lawmakers to concentrate on the business of governing and moving our economies forward. Let’s focus on producing positive outcomes and Indiana continuing to set an example as a state that gets things done.”

The Impact of Early Voting

AHappy to say I voted early and have moved one step closer to putting this madness behind me. Thanks to the Hancock County Public Library for setting up such a seamless operation. (I had been in that very room just two weeks prior listening to a presentation by local ghost hunters. God bless public libraries!)

FiveThirtyEight outlines early voting factors and how it may impact this presidential election:

Early voting may have a slight potential to affect the outcome of this election, but experts say its predictive value is not particularly high.

Burden and McDonald agreed that the majority of people who cast their ballots early would have participated in the election anyway and likely would not have changed their minds if they’d waited until Election Day, so the timing of their votes probably won’t change the outcome. Moreover, McDonald said it’s very difficult to identify national trends in early voting, since the laws vary widely by state and different voting opportunities attract different kinds of voters.

In general, though, Democrats who vote early tend to do so in person and Republicans tend to do so by mail. But that isn’t true everywhere — Oregon, Washington and Colorado all offer mail-in ballots to every registered voter, and most of their votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in presidential elections, at least in the last two electoral cycles. Early voting in the past two presidential elections has favored Democrats, McDonald said.

Well-organized campaigns do have opportunities to capitalize on early voting, however, and this year that could benefit Hillary Clinton, who has a stronger ground game than Donald Trump.

It “opens up more possibilities for voting, boosting turnout in the long run,” said Mark Stephenson, the CEO of Red Oak Strategic, a political consulting firm in Arlington, Virginia. “But it also gives the campaign tacticians the opportunity to analyze and see what is happening over a longer period of time and be efficient with where spending is going as a result. Both, when done successfully by either party, can provide a real tactical and strategic advantage.”

“I suppose it probably advantages the Democrats slightly,” Burden said, “but that’s mostly because the Democrats are organized to take on the early vote more than the Republicans are.”

Jon Ralston, a prominent political reporter in Nevada, noted that Clinton can take advantage of the Democratic Party’s edge in organizing early voting, which was built in 2008 and 2012.

The Clinton campaign uses a variety of techniques for reaching out to early voters, including door knocks, phone calls, emails and text messages, said Lily Adams, a Clinton campaign spokeswoman.

Tickets Going Fast for November 15 Annual Dinner

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Karl Rove and James Carville had an entertaining political discussion at the 2015 Annual Awards Dinner. This year, George Will will talk politics just after the 2016 election.

Newsflash: More than 1,200 people have already registered to attend the Indiana Chamber of Commerce’s 27th Annual Awards Dinner on November 15. Are you among that group?

You’ve still got (a little) time to reserve your spot for the annual gathering of business, legislative and community leaders, but seats are going quickly.

Aside from offering a chance to network at the state’s leading business celebration, the Annual Awards Dinner also honors the Business and Government Leaders of the Year, Lifeline Data Centers Community of the Year and the Indiana Vision 2025 Dynamic Leader of the Year.

We’ve already shared the Lifeline Data Centers Community of the Year winner, the city of Fishers. But the other coveted awards are not officially revealed until the night of the event.

But we’ll offer you a few clues in preparation for the big event:

  • The Business Leader of the Year has been involved in his industry throughout his entire life. It’s in the last 25 years, however, that his company has grown into a powerhouse
  • Our Government Leader of the Year is a long-time small business owner who has helped companies throughout the state save millions of dollars through legislation he has authored and guided through the process
  • And our Dynamic Leaders of the Year have had great success blending today’s technologies with something that many of us have fond memories of from our younger days; and they’re poised for even greater success
    If that’s not enough to convince you to register, remember that Pulitzer Prize-winning political commentator George F. Will is going to headline the event. Will writes a twice weekly column for The Washington Post, and is a regulator contributor to Fox News. He will share thoughts on the condition of the “entitlement state” in America.

The event is presented by Anthem Blue Cross & Blue Shield and will be held at the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis. Additional sponsors are Ivy Tech Community College (speaker); Uzelac & Associates, Inc. (opening reception); Hirons Advertising + Public Relations (speaker reception); Lifeline Data Centers (Community of the Year); and Indiana Chamber Foundation (Indiana Vision 2025 Dynamic Leader of the Year).

Corporate sponsors: AT&T; French Lick Resort; Hoosier Park Racing & Casino and Indiana Grand Racing & Casino; Ogletree Deakins; OneAmerica; NIPSCO; Tilson; Wellness Council of Indiana; and Zimmer Biomet.

Contributing sponsors: Allison Transmission; City Securities Corporation; Community Health Network; FedEx; Fineline Printing Group; Hunt Construction Group, An AECOM Company; Inside INdiana Business with Gerry Dick; Indiana Soybean Alliance/Indiana Corn Marketing Council; JPMorgan Chase & Co.; KERAMIDA Inc.; Keystone Realty Group; Markey’s Rental & Staging; Pacers Sports & Entertainment; Roche Diagnostics Corporation; Subaru of Indiana Automotive, Inc.; The Kroger Co.; Vectren; WFYI Productions; and WGU Indiana.

Gold tables are sold out. Silver and standard tables of 10 are still available, as well as Community of the Year VIP section tables. Individual tickets are $149 per person.

Register online or by calling Nick at (800) 824-6885.

U.S. Senate: Young, Bayh Speak Out in BizVoice

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BizVoice talked to both men separately this summer, asking them the same questions on policies critical to Indiana Chamber member companies and the business community at-large. (NOTE: The Indiana Chamber’s Congressional Affairs Committee has endorsed Rep. Todd Young in this race.) 

BV: What is your view on the federal tax code … are there areas you feel need attention? If so, what reforms do you see as the most important?

YOUNG: “We need to simplify the tax code. Washington needs to stop picking winners and losers through the tax code. We need to stop the double taxation of overseas income so that hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. profit can be repatriated and invested in places like Indiana to create jobs and raise wages.

“We need to lower the corporate tax rate; we have the highest rate in the industrialized world – that clearly undermines our competitiveness and has even been causing our major corporations, with all their jobs, to relocate their operations overseas. And we need to lower the individual tax rate so that families and small businesses can participate actively in the economy.”

BAYH: “We need a tax code that is certainly simpler; it costs way too much to comply with it; it’s way too complicated. One of the areas I think we can get some bipartisan agreement on would be in the area of corporate tax reform – to get the tax rate down to make us globally competitive. Currently we have one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, which leads to a couple of negative consequences. Number one: A lot of businesses that are globally competitive have stranded profits abroad. I think it’s in excess of a trillion dollars. So by making the corporate rate globally competitive, we would allow them to bring those profits home to invest in their U.S. operations.

“Number two: The fact that our tax code is not globally competitive creates an incentive for foreign companies to buy U.S. companies basically as a tax arbitrage (profiting from differences in how income or capital gains are taxed); it also leads to U.S. companies to re-domicile themselves overseas. By getting the tax rate down and making it globally competitive, you do away with that phenomenon.”

Read the full Q&A online.

Trump Tax Plan 2.0

19145168Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump recently announced revisions to his tax plan. And it has already been broken down and analyzed by the Tax Foundation. Individuals would be subject to just three possible rates: 12% for up to $37,500 in income; 15% for up to $112,500; and, 33% for over $112,500 (all double for married couples.) The top capital gains rate would be 20%. It would also increase the standard deduction to $15,000 (currently at $6,300.) Carried interest would be taxed as ordinary income. And there are other changes including a new childcare cost deduction.

As for business taxes, the plan reduces the corporate rate from 35% to 15%. It has a lesser rate of 10% for repatriated foreign profits. But on the negative side for manufacturers, it takes away the Section 199 domestic production activities deduction. The research credit is left intact. Unfortunately, it is not clear that the reduced corporate 15% rate will be applicable to business pass-through income (stay tuned on that.)

The estate and gift tax would be eliminated. However, the inheritors would eventually have to pay on the full gain realized when they sell the asset, without the benefit of a stepped-up basis.

What about the impact on revenues and our federal debt? Well, the new plan is better in that regard than the original. The static evaluation is that it will reduce revenues (increase the debt) somewhere between $4.4 trillion and $5.9 trillion (depending on the unspecified details) over 10 years; that is roughly half of the estimate of the plan he first outlined. The dynamic analysis, factoring in economic growth improvement associated with tax cuts, lessen the overall impact, but those numbers are inherently more speculative.

See the complete analysis and full breakdown from the Tax Foundation.

Gubernatorial Race: John Gregg, Eric Holcomb Offer Policy Insights in BizVoice

The 2016 election season has been like no other – nationally and in Indiana. In the September/October issue, the Indiana Chamber’s BizVoice® magazine talks with some of the leading candidates as the road to November winds toward a close.
Gubernatorial race: John Gregg, Eric Holcomb offer policy insights:

greggBV: What areas might we be in disagreement?

Gregg: “I don’t think there are those issues that exist. That’s why I referred to the old fights. Let’s throw those elephants on the table. Right to work would have been one in the past, but that is the past. That’s not going to change. You know the makeup of the Legislature. I think you’ll find we share a lot of common goals together.

“We may disagree from time to time on how to get there, but the truth of the matter is that in our administration we’re going to be dealing with an overwhelming Republican Legislature. Having a check and balance – right now there is not one – is good.”

Read the full story online.


holcombBV: Why is Indiana having such success attracting tech companies?

Holcomb: “I would say don’t just ask me, but the CEOs that are making the decisions that are creating not just the hundreds, but the thousands of new high-tech jobs coming to Indiana – not Austin, Texas; not Boston, Massachusetts; not San Francisco, California; not Chicago. They’re choosing to locate in Indiana, a state that has traditionally been known as a manufacturing state, because of those low tax rates, the reasonable
regulatory environment. We have the great communities that are offering hungry, world-class university graduates a good opportunity and a good job.

“(Our momentum will increase) if we continue to get the basics right and don’t make promises we can’t keep, start writing checks we can’t cash, start raiding the kitty – if we stick to the successful practices that we’ve experienced over the last 12 years and we offer good government service that operates at the speed of business.”

Read the full story online.

Sen. Donnelly’s Visit Highlights an Active Month for Our Congressional Affairs Committee

donnellyWhile the presidential election may be the talk of D.C. and the media, this is also a busy time of the year for federal policy conversations for the Indiana Chamber.

In mid-August alone, Sen. Joe Donnelly, Senate candidate Evan Bayh and state Sen. Jim Banks, the Republican candidate for congressional District 3, met with our congressional affairs committee members to discuss issues important to Indiana. And Congresswoman Susan Brooks (District 5) was the keynote speaker for our Indiana Conference on Energy Management, advocating for the need for both sustainable and affordable energy.

While we may never agree on all matters with our congressional members, their overall willingness to engage, listen and act – by and large – in the best interest of the Hoosier business community and residents is a longstanding hallmark of Indiana’s delegation. And we are very appreciative for that.

Donnelly, who is not up for re-election, shared his thoughts on a variety of issues during his nearly hour-long visit. For one, he contends the gridlock in Congress is overblown: “What you see on TV bears no reflection to what is reality.” He stressed that 80% of the time the group works together, but the 20% – which often features high profile issues – is what drives the media reports. And “time after time, the Indiana delegation works together.”

Whether that’s Brooks with Donnelly on the law to combat opioid abuse, signed by the President last month, or Indiana’s senior senator, Dan Coats, and Donnelly – joined by District 9 Congressman and Senate candidate Todd Young – leading the charge to suspend the medical device tax for two years. And these are just two of the many examples.

Incidentally, these are among the efforts that led to Donnelly being presented with the U.S. Chamber’s “Spirit of Enterprise” award at our office last week; the honor is for his continued commitment to job creation and economic growth.

Indiana Chamber Reaffirms Endorsement of Todd Young for U.S. Senate

youngAt a series of press conferences Aug. 29, the Indiana Chamber reaffirmed its endorsement of Congressman Todd Young (R-IN, 9th District) for the U.S. Senate. The announcement was first made at the Associated Builders and Contractors training facility on the east side of Indianapolis, followed by stops in South Bend and Fort Wayne.

The organization previously had endorsed Young in the primary before Evan Bayh, former U.S. senator and Indiana governor, emerged as the Democrat candidate.

Once Bayh entered the race, our congressional affairs committee thought the appropriate action was to take another look at this race and talk with him about policies important to the business community.

We were able to do that recently and appreciate Sen. Bayh’s willingness to have that discussion. At the end of the day, however, our committee overwhelmingly decided to keep our endorsement with Congressman Young.

His military, business and government experience have him prepared to take this next step of leadership. Young is also an economic-minded individual who has repeatedly demonstrated prudent decision-making on issues that are vital to jobs and economic growth.

Additionally, Young’s engagement with the business community and his focus on economic, fiscal and regulatory issues were key factors. After he was appointed to the Ways and Means Committee, the congressman sought substantial feedback on potential federal tax reforms and what would have the most impact on Hoosier companies and their employees. He listened to our members – through personal conversations and a survey – using their insights to help form his pro-economy agenda.

The Indiana Chamber frequently hears from its members about burdensome federal regulations. They bring uncertainty and put a stranglehold on job creation. Congressman Young understands these frustrations and has sought to remedy that. In each session, he has introduced legislation (the REINS Act) that would require members of Congress to vote on major rules before they go into effect.

At both the state and federal levels, Indiana Chamber endorsements are driven by vote scores on pro-jobs, pro-economy issues. For state endorsements, the Indiana Chamber relies on its Legislative Vote Analysis report.

Congressional endorsements are based on a combination of the U.S. Chamber’s own vote scores and an analysis of votes on Indiana Chamber federal policy positions. The U.S. Chamber’s lifetime congressional voting record for Bayh is 55%; Young is at 91%.

The Indiana Chamber’s congressional affairs committee, which determined Young’s endorsement, is a nonpartisan group comprised of volunteer business leaders from around the state.

Representatives of the U.S. Chamber, which also is supporting Young’s general election campaign, joined the Indiana Chamber for the press event.