Cook Breaks Down Presidential Race

IMG_2132

National political analyst Charlie Cook has spent nearly four decades writing about and predicting election outcomes. All that experience and more, he told an Indiana Chamber Legislative Dinner audience of more than 700 people Tuesday night, was not enough to foresee what has taken place thus far in the 2016 presidential race.

While some candidates have ended their campaigns as a result of poor finishes in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, plenty of questions remain. Despite Bernie Sanders’ close finish in Iowa and convincing win this week, Cook says the Vermont senator will struggle to compete in more diverse states. Hillary Clinton’s biggest obstacle at this time is her potential indictment over the use of her private email server while in the role of Secretary of State. If an indictment comes, Cook predicts that Vice President Joe Biden will quickly get a phone call asking him to reconsider his decision not to run.

On the Republican side, Cook offers that Ted Cruz has emerged as the leader of the conservatives, Donald Trump is “operating in his own lane” and the more established, traditional candidates (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich and until a few days ago Chris Christie) need to have three of them drop out and allow supporters to unite behind the one remaining. The ceiling for Trump’s support is declining, according to Cook. The veteran prognosticator calls Kasich probably the most qualified to serve as President, but at this point expects Cruz and Clinton to earn their party nominations. He notes, however, that both are very unpopular with independent and moderate voters.

In other words, stay tuned.

Governor Mike Pence provided opening remarks at the annual event, presented by Ice Miller, at the Indiana Roof Ballroom.

Cook: Politics Full of Surprises, but Obama Win Remains Most Shocking

Cook_CharlieCharlie Cook is editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine. Cook is considered one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics, and The New York Times has called him “one of the best political handicappers in the nation.”

Cook will be the keynote speaker at the Indiana Chamber’s 2016 Legislative Dinner on February 9. (Get your tickets now!) I recently spoke with Cook for an evaluation of this very turbulent time in American politics. Here is an excerpt from the conversation.

In 2014, the GOP had a major shake-up when Eric Cantor, a member of leadership, was unseated in the primary. In Indiana, we had a similar shock in 2012 when Richard Lugar was ousted. What are some ongoing lessons for long-standing legislators to take from that? Is that mostly a GOP predicament due to its Tea Party elements, or are do you see any Democrats potentially dealing with primary turbulence in the near future?

Cook: Washington and Congress have never been beloved, and alienation is increasing. But it shows you have to be back in your state and your district, and really keep a tight feel on the pulse back home because it can get out from under you. Cantor was a bright, effective member, but he went on the national stage and became a major force in the national Republican Party. But to do that meant not going home and keeping fences mended as well as he should have.

Sen. Lugar had become this enormously respected figure in terms of international politics and the world scene, and a real statesman. But that came at a cost. And not having a home back in the state became symbolic of something.

So yes, there’s a “Tea Party versus The Establishment” dynamic in the Republican Party, but there’s an older dynamic of “going national” and maybe not tending to things back home quite as attentively as you have to in an era when people are so suspicious of politicians. But there’s certainly more volatility and anger within the GOP right now than there is in the Democratic Party. Although Sanders and the Occupy Wall Street movement shows it does exist in the Democratic Party, it’s more profound in the GOP. We’re not seeing Democratic incumbents knocked off in the primaries at the regularity we see in the GOP.

What shocked you as far as the most surprising election result you’ve seen in the past 20 years?

Cook: I think Obama beating Clinton. There were signs early on that he had a unique appeal with younger voters … but to have someone who had just barely been a member Congress upset one of the biggest names in the Democratic Party, it was one of the biggest shocks I’d ever seen.

In some ways, freshman senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz – although philosophically they’re very different from where Obama was – (remind me of that) but the idea of a first-term senator doing that well was unprecedented. It showed you that a lot of the old rules may not be applying.

Cook: America’s Political Infatuation Better than Indifference

Cook_CharlieCharlie Cook is editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine. Cook is considered one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics, and The New York Times has called him “one of the best political handicappers in the nation.”

Cook will be the keynote speaker at the Indiana Chamber’s 2016 Legislative Dinner on February 9. (Get your tickets now!) I recently spoke with him for an evaluation of this very turbulent time in American politics.

Below is one of the questions (and stay tuned for more soon):

Perhaps I’m asking the wrong person, but do you think people pay too much attention to politics (compared to policy or other global affairs)? It seems like the presidential primary and election is such a long process in the U.S. – especially compared to Canada – and is always highly covered. Are we at risk of political fatigue in some way?

Cook: This is such an unusual election. Our campaigns are always long, and they’re getting longer. But that’s the nature of our elections. It’s not like a parliamentary system where the prime minister calls an election and five or six weeks later there is an election.

But it’s a combination of two things: 1. It is important who’s President of the United States. Whoever it is, whether we like them or not, we have to live with them for four to eight years; 2. It’s almost like a sporting event with people handicapping it the way they’d talk about a Colts game. I think it’s perfectly healthy. I’d rather people have a curiosity about it for a long time than they think it doesn’t matter. In that sense, some of the fascination with Donald Trump is healthy in that it’s channeling anger and alienation into the process, rather than people just throwing up their hands and giving up.

Now, I don’t think Trump will be the Republican nominee, and if I’m right, the question is: What will happen to those Trump voters who are alienated and angry? In the absence of Trump, will they withdraw from the process? That’s an important question.

Cook Sees Change in Control in House

Charlie Cook is one of the most respected national political journalists. And while our attention this past week was focused on primaries, Cook is looking ahead to November and offering some bold predictions for Congress.

While he concedes that mid-term elections are typically a vote for or against the party in power (with the one out of power usually gaining), that dynamic is in play even more than usual in 2010. Cook writes that:

The American people continue to be exceedingly unhappy with the way things are going in this country, and especially with Washington politics.

Voters believe the jobs situation is poor and blame President Obama and Democrats for not having focused more on the economy. Whether Republicans can take control of the House in November is a close call.

I see it as more likely than not to tip to Republicans, which is a call many people in my business, for whom I have enormous respect, are not willing to make just yet.

There will likely be heavy Democratic losses in the Senate, as well, but not enough for Republicans to take control; it’s more likely they’ll gain between six and eight seats. However, with 22 Democratic and 10 Republican seats up in 2012, and 20 Democratic and 13 Republican seats up in 2014, there will be more targets for the GOP as they look to take control in the near future.

As everyone knows, though, things could change in the six months between now and the election — as many Democrats seek to remind me.

But, at this point, things would have to change dramatically to save Democrats from some very significant losses. The trajectory or the narrative of the election would have to profoundly change from where it has been and where it still is. And, with each week that goes by, there are no clear signs that the direction this election seems to be going has altered. It still might change, but it hasn’t thus far. 

Cook: GOP Has Work to Do

The Cook Political Report, featuring Charlie Cook, has analyzed Washington politics and national trends since 1984. His work is highly respected in most circles.

An early look at the 2008 general election proves interesting — John McCain and Barack Obama in a very close race and other Republican candidates having an uphill struggle.

Among the nuggets from Cook is the fact that a party seeking a third consecutive term in the White House only succeeds about 20% of the time.