Here is a look at the 10 counties that historically have been accurate bellwethers in predicting a statewide winner. It is also interesting to note that these 10 counties are located in eight of the 10 TV media markets in the state. This accuracy is based on 19 statewide races from 1998 to 2006.
Jay: On average, is only 1.5% off the winning candidate’s percentage received. One of the top House races, district 33, is in Jay County where Bill Davis is fending off a tough competitor.
Brown: Don’t we all wish we were enjoying beautiful Brown County today?
Newton: Another one of the top House races, District 15, covers Newton County where Don Lehe looks to defeat the same candidate for the second straight election.
Warrick: In the Evansville TV market
Wayne: Technically in the Dayton TV market
Henry: Home of the “World’s Largest and Finest High School Gymnasium in the World” (Nice to be able to plug my hometown of New Castle.)
Jennings: In the Louisville TV market.
Howard: Like the country, tough economic times have hit this county.
Ohio: In the Cincinnati TV market.
Parke: Eastern part of Parke County has a competitive House race (HD 44).