It’s true: The tax collections for the first two months of the new fiscal year and new state budget have fallen slightly below the forecasted target. Specifically, general fund revenues for July and August combined are $65 million short of the projections. That is 3.2% under the combined forecasts for those two months. But to worry about $65 million at this point is not warranted. First, $65 million is only a blip when you consider that we are talking about a $30 billion budget. Secondly, as in surveys and polls, a variance of less than 5% in revenue forecasting is statistically insignificant.
And lastly, there are 22 more months in the biennium. There will inevitably be fluctuations in the revenue numbers throughout the balance of this fiscal year and next fiscal year. The variance could double or it could disappear in the next couple months. The point is – until we experience a full quarter of shortfalls that total more than 5% – concern is premature.
This is not to say that the numbers are meaningless or that they should be ignored. Keeping a close watch on the revenues and reacting accordingly has been a key to Indiana maintaining its strong fiscal status over the last several years. Discrepancies between the forecast and the actual collections can result from many things, as can be noted in the budget agency commentary that often accompanies release of the hard numbers each month. Changes in the law, special transfers and timing issues can all explain monthly anomalies.
However, closer looks at the individual sources, plus year-over-year and month-to-month comparisons can evidence significant trends. Sales tax revenues are by far the largest single source, making even small differences between the actual year-over-year growth and the projected annual growth something to pay close attention to. While corporate income tax collections are not as critical to the bottom line, they are a major source of revenue and have been very strong (46.7% above the target through the first two months). Another positive aspect of the short-term numbers is the modest uptick of gaming revenues (7.2% above target).
So keep in mind that the numbers will fluctuate and most probably balance out over time – if not, adjustments can and will be made to assure that Indiana maintains its prudent fiscal posture.