IBRG Vendor, Indiana Chamber Member Wins Political Award

Faulkner Strategies of Granger has been awarded a Reed Award by Campaigns & Elections’ Politics magazine for political professionals in the category of “Republican State Legislative Candidate.” Faulkner Strategies is the best political mail vendor in the Midwest and is a growing Indiana company with a talented staff. IBRG has hired Faulkner Strategies on several races in the last few elections to handle direct mail for our endorsed candidates in competitive races and is a company we have an excellent relationship with.

The mailing that earned Faulkner Strategies this award was for Rep. Dan Leonard’s primary election. This is a race where IBRG was heavily involved and Chase Downham, Indiana Chamber’s manager of political affairs, spent considerable time on the ground running Rep. Leonard’s competitive primary race. Rep. Leonard was a terrific candidate who has done great work for the people he represents and the mail program designed by Faulkner Strategies was effective in telling this story. It played a major role in helping Rep. Leonard win re-election.

Congratulations to Chris, Angela, Jared and the great staff at Faulkner Strategies for this well-deserved award and thank you for being an Indiana Chamber member.

Click here to see the award-winning mail piece.

IBRG-backed Truitt Victorious in HD26

After all of the provisional ballots have been counted, Randy Truitt emerges victorious in HD26. At the start of the day, 414 provisional ballots needed to be counted. Of these, 112 were in HD26. Truitt increased his lead from 21 to 26 over John Polles. The final result stands at 14,049 for Truitt to 14,023 for Polles. 

Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG) provided significant assistance in Truitt’s effort by producing and paying for a TV spot and invested nearly $50,000 in his campaign. Randy is a strong pro-business individual and will be a strong ally in the upcoming legislative session. Congratulations to Randy!

The House remains at 52-48 Democratic control.

The Art of Prediction

Now that the results are in, it’s only fair to deliver a grade on how my predictions went: 

Correct Picks:

  • Obama would win Indiana.
  • Obama would win the White House and win 375 electoral votes to John McCain’s 163. With only North Carolina undecided, the count stands at 349-147.
  • 48 out of 49 states were picked correctly with only Missouri being incorrect with one state remaining.
  • Governor Daniels would easily win re-election.
  • 8 Congressional seats would remain unchanged. (I thought Mike Pence’s and Steve Buyer’s races would be closer, but they’d still win).
  • Greg Zoeller and Tony Bennett would narrowly win and be good bellwether races for the night.
  • Ed Charbonneau would win in the only competitive Senate seat.
  • House Democrats would keep their majority.
  • The Indiana House would end up 52-48 Democrat. One seat, HD26, is still undecided but Republican Randy Truitt is up by 20 votes.

 Incorrect Picks (or near misses):

  • Congressman Mark Souder would lose. Souder won easily with 55% of the vote.
  • Missed the correct winner in two House races (HD26 and HD97).

Overall, the correct picks tallied 183 out of 187 correct (97.9%). Not bad, but the misses sting.

IMPORTANT REMINDER: Indiana Chamber to Bring Real Time Election Night Coverage on Our New Site

Sure, you can listen to your favorite talking heads at CNN, MSNBC or Fox News rattle off their jargon du jour.

But for the first time, the Indiana Chamber’s web site will be Election Night Central, updating you on the status of the many state races the other guys often miss. Furthermore, we’ll be partnering with Hoosier Access and will have streaming analysis every half hour featuring our political affairs director Michael Davis and Hoosier Access’ own Josh Gillespie waxing analytical about what they’re seeing.

So the option is yours — you can watch Anderson Cooper & Company play with their crazy hand-held CGI pie charts (that’s just not natural), or you can kick it Hoosier style with the likes of us. (Ok, actually, you can do both since they’re two different mediums, but I’m on a roll.)

Just visit www.indianachamber.com on election night and watch the results roll in. 

Note: This blog will also be used for running analysis in tandem with the main site, so don’t forget about us — or the communications team will whine like neglected puppies. (We think we’re people.)

Numbers That Matter in Indiana Right Now

As we approach the last Election Day on November 4, here is a list of key numbers and percentages that have greatly influenced this election.

  • 91% – Percentage of the national population that rates the economic conditions as “only fair" or “poor,” according to Gallup
  • 40% – Key percentage to look for in Indiana is if Obama can win 40% or more of the white vote. If Obama goes north of this number, he likely wins Indiana
  • I 30-49 – Independent 30-49 year old middle age voters are critical in deciding who will win Indiana’s eleven electoral votes
  • 26 – MINIMUM number of new legislators that will show up for the 2009 Indiana General Assembly. This number is likely to go up following the defeat of incumbents
  • 76 – Number of IBRG Endorsed legislative candidates in 2008
  • 1 – Number of truly competitive Senate races on IBRG’s radar screen
  • 8 – Number of competitive House races IBRG is playing in today
  • 13 – House races that are either lean or toss-up
  • +2 R / +3 D – This is the likely range for party change in the Indiana House
  • 345,582 – Newly registered voters in 2008 alone (8.4% of voters)
  • 525,264 – Newly registered voters since 2006 General Election. That means that 12.7% of voters are newly registered since 2006. This is a huge NEW voting block that did not exist two years ago.
  • 455,035 – Absentee ballots cast as of last night. This is already 11% of total registered voters (4,135,301 active voters).

Finally, the last number that may matter most to all of us – 4; there are only four days left to vote.

Is Time Running Out on Incumbents?

"Vote Not to Re-elect!": This well stated bumper sticker I saw on a car yesterday summed up the feelings of many voters. People are clearly sick and tired of who we currently have in office, at all levels and of all parties. Incumbents in toss-up or lean districts are vulnerable. Incumbents in safe seats may escape with a victory, but it will unlikely be with the ridiculous margins to which they’ve grown accustomed.

As of today, the Secretary of State is reporting there are 524,405 newly registered voters since the 2006 general election. This is over a half-million people in a state with very little population growth. That means that nearly 12% of voters are newly registered. This is a voting bloc that simply did not exist two years ago, yet it now makes up a significant percentage of voters.

The next question for voters will be something like this, “Do you think a legislator who has served for 34 years needs to go?” The qualifications for those challengers may not be an issue or on the minds of voters, but voters will "Vote Not to Re-elect" in large numbers this year.

Crunch Time Means Tough Decisions for IBRG

Finally, we are inside of two weeks until the last Election Day on November 4.  I purposely say “last Election Day” because there are 28 Election Days now with the creation of vote centers, satellite voting and absentee voting.  This is the timeframe that we have to make our final decisions on which candidates we are going to support and which ones we will simply wish well. 

IBRG’s (Indiana Business for Responsive Government) approach has always been laser-focused on putting resources into only those few races that 1) have a pro-business IBRG-endorsed candidate, 2) are truly competitive, and 3) IBRG’s support will make a difference in the outcome. We hold back most of our resources until late in the game to have the most information possible in determining which of those races we need to help get across the finish.

These decisions are years in the making. All of these decisions are rooted in years of research, demographic studies and polling data on each of the districts in play and of those candidates. These are not decisions that are made based on emotion or if we personally like or dislike a candidate. As I will often tell candidates when they ask how we make these decisions, I tell them they are nothing more than cold, calculated decisions that gives IBRG the best chance to elect as many pro-business candidates as possible.

Over the next few days, these tough decisions on what races to invest in and what projects to fund with several hundred thousand dollars will be made. Our report card comes in 12 nights.

IBRG Makes Endorsement to Succeed Weatherwax

In the Indiana Senate race to succeed Sen. Tom Weatherwax, Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG) — the political arm of the Indiana Chamber — has endorsed Randy Head (SD18 – Logansport).

SD18 is nearly a 63% base Republican district and is the 17th most Republican senate district in the state. In 2004, George W. Bush received 70.4% of the vote and gubernatorial candidate Mitch Daniels received 60.4% of the vote. It is our assessment that this will not be a truly competitive race and that Randy Head will win on November 4. The one and only truly competitive senate race remains to be SD5 where Larry Balmer (Plymouth) is challenging Sen. Ed Charbonneau (Valparaiso).

Randy Head is a deputy prosecuting attorney for Cass County. He earned his undergraduate degree from Wabash College and his law degree from Indiana University.

To view a complete list of all IBRG endorsed candidates for 2008, please visit IBRG’s web site or directly open this PDF.

Chamber Staffers Discuss Gingrich and the Upcoming Election

Indiana Chamber communications VP Tom Schuman and political affairs VP Michael Davis recently sat down on the Inside INdiana Business set to discuss our 19th Annual Awards Dinner keynote speaker Newt Gingrich. The pair also touched on key factors pertaining to the upcoming election.

 Below is the commentary video:

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IBRG Goes 16 for 16 in ’08 Primaries

There is success — and then there is a "100% grand slam, we did everything we intended to do" outcome.

The latter sums up Tuesday for Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG) , the political action arm of the Indiana Chamber. IBRG is in the business of electing state legislators focused on a pro-growth, pro-jobs agenda. It endorsed 16 candidates (nine in the House and seven in the Senate). All 16 were winners.

Among the highlights:
* IBRG was part of a coalition supporting challenger Wes Culver (R-Goshen) against incumbent John Ulmer, also of Goshen, in House District 49. Culver earned a most impressive 70.7% of the vote

* IBRG was active in the re-election effort of Dan Leonard (R-Huntington), who collected more than 58% of the vote in handily defeating two challengers in House District 50

* An open-seat Senate race saw IBRG help Republican Jean Leising (a former state senator from Oldenburg) collect more than 48% of the vote in a four-way battle in District 42

IBRG bases its endorsements on legislator voting records (as documented in the Legislative Vote Analysis) and candidate interviews. There won’t be too much time for pats on the back, however, as the general election awaits — as does the effort to elect legislators ready to work for an economic climate that rewards Indiana companies and their employees.

UPDATE: Indiana political blog Hoosier Access has also taken note of IBRG’s success, heralding the PAC as the big winner on election night.