Spend, Spend and More Spend

Few will argue with the idea that federal government spending is out of control. The Heritage Foundation's Federal Spending by the Numbers is a comprehensive look at the situation. We'll share a few of the many bullet points that just make me (and I'm sure many of you) wonder why our political leaders can't realize that the current course is a disastrous one.

  • Over the past 20 years, federal spending grew 71 percent faster than inflation.
  • In 1962, defense spending was nearly half the total federal budget (49 percent); Social Security and other mandatory programs were less than one-third of the budget (31 percent). Two major entitlement programs, Medicaid and Medicare, were signed into law by President Johnson in 1965.
  • In 2012 entitlements were nearly 62 percent of total spending, while defense dropped to less than one-fifth (18.7 percent) of the budget.
  • Federal spending per household reached $29,691 in 2012, a 29 percent increase (adjusted for inflation) from $23,010 in 2002. The government collected $20,293 per household in taxes in 2012.
  • The excess of spending over taxes produced a budget deficit of $9,398 per household in 2012.
  • For every $6.80 the federal government collected in taxes in 2012, it spent $10. Consequently, $3.20 out of every $10 spent was borrowed.
  • Major entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Children's Health Insurance Program, Obamacare) will increase from 44 percent of federal spending in 2012 to 57 percent in 2022.
  • In 1993, Social Security surpassed national defense as the largest federal spending category, and remains first today.
  • Federal energy spending has increased steadily over the past decade with the government increasingly subsidizing activities like energy efficiency, energy supply, and technology commercialization. An unprecedented $42 billion was spent in 2009 as part of the stimulus, a nine-fold increase over the 2008 spending level.
  • Interest on the debt is the fifth largest federal spending category, even at today’s low interest rates.
  • All entitlements (excluding net interest) total nearly 62 percent of all federal spending today.
  • Spending on the largest, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, will leap from 10.4 percent of GDP in 2012 to 18.2 percent by 2048.
  • The big three entitlements alone will absorb all tax revenues by 2048. Other spending, such as national defense or interest on the debt would have to be financed completely on borrowed money.
  • Medicare is the fastest-growing major entitlement, growing 68 percent since 2002. Medicaid grew 38 percent and Social Security 37 percent.

American Paychecks to Shrink, to Chagrin of Employers and Employees

Get ready for a heaping dose of bummersauce: They say the only certainties are death and taxes — but you can also count on your 2013 checks being smaller because of those taxes. CNN Money has the bad news:

Payroll taxes are key for financing Social Security, and the break of the past two years has forced the government to replenish the funds with borrowed money. The tax break was always meant to be temporary.

Workers earning the national average salary of $41,000 will receive $32 less on every biweekly paycheck. The higher the salary (up to $113,700), the bigger the bite, but business owners say their lower wage employees will feel it most.

Deborah Koenigsberger, who owns the Noir et Blanc fashion store in Manhattan, has yet to have the talk with her only part-time employee, a college student.

"It's going to hurt me to tell her this. She can't afford a decrease," Koenigsberger said. What unnerves her is the feeling that she's lost control as a business owner watching out for her employees.

Keval Mehta, CEO of In-R-Food, a smartphone app developer in Durham, N.C., worried the tax increase will threaten morale. "They don't get paid enough for what they do," Mehta said.

The 1-year-old company has yet to make a profit, having just launched software that scans grocery products and lists ingredients and nutritional values. His four employees could make upwards of $80,000 a year elsewhere, but three of them earn less than half that. They put in long hours, must work from laptops while on vacation, and no, there isn't a health insurance plan.

All that made it even more difficult to warn them during the holidays about the oncoming pay cut. Mehta promised them he'd make up the lost pay if the company's finances improve next year.

"Currently, they're working on passion. But that can only drive you so much," Mehta said. "I don't like that I don't have control over this. It wasn't a decision I made. But as a CEO, you take responsibility for everything. You're automatically at fault, because you're the captain of the ship."

Budget Reflects Changing Times

I’ve seen these federal budget comparisons before, but they prove to be a somewhat fascinating look at how our nation has changed over the past 40-plus years. In this case, Kiplinger breaks down 1968 vs. projected fiscal year 2012. Some of the highlights:

  • Defense was an amazing 46% of the budget in 1968; it’s 19.8% now
  • In 1968, Social Security (13.4%), Medicare (2.3%) and Medicaid (1.1%) totaled less than 17%; today, it’s 20.6%, 13.2% and 7.2%, respectively, for a total of 41%
  • Not part of the picture 43 years ago, but with dollar numbers in the billions now are food stamps (2.2%, $80 billion), housing subsidies (1.6%, $61 billion), low-income tax credit (1.3%, $47 billion), supplemental security income (1.2%, $44 billion), nutrition programs (0.7%, $26 billion) and disaster relief (0.3%, $11 billion)

Maybe the scariest part is putting those billions next to the big-ticket social programs. The message: Something has to be done.

  • Social Security: $767 billion
  • Medicare: $492 billion
  • Medicaid: $269 billion
  • Net interest on debt: $242 billion 

Federal Spending Now … and Then

Discussion of President Obama’s proposed fiscal 2011 budget has focused on several numbers: $3.8 trillion in spending and $1.3 trillion as the deficit.

Much has changed, of course, over the last 40-plus years but look at the share of the total budget for some of the top programs in 2011 compared to 1968 (middle of the Vietnam War and just the beginning of the Medicare program).

Program: Fiscal 2011; Fiscal 1968

Defense: 19.6%; 46%

Social Security: 19.0%; 13.3%

Medicare: 13.0%; 2.6%

Medicaid: 7.8%; 1.1%

Food stamps: 2.0%; 0%

Housing subsidies: 1.7%; 0% 

Supp. Security Income: 1.3%; 0%

Low-income tax credit: 1.2%; 0%

Pick different years and you would undoubtedly find other interesting comparisons.

Cato: Beware of Government Employee Burden on Taxpayers

A blog post by the Cato Institute raises an interesting question: What happens when taxpayers can’t afford to pay the salaries and benefits of the expanding government workforce? The obvious answer is, "Taxpayers can always afford it." We’ll just likely end up debating the meaning of the word "afford" as much as President Clinton debated the meaning of the word "is." At any rate, the post from Tad DeHaven (former deputy director of the Indiana OMB, btw) is worthwhile:

Dennis Cauchon of USA Today and Stephane Fitch of Forbes recently penned articles on the excessive nature of state and local government employee benefits and the threat taxpayers face as a result.

First, Cauchon reports that “State and local governments have set aside virtually no money to pay $1 trillion or more in medical benefits for retired civil servants…With bills coming due as Baby Boomers start to retire, states, cities, school districts and other governments may be forced to raise taxes, cut benefits or both — a task made especially difficult in an economic downturn.”

I would add that the task of cutting benefits for government employees is especially difficult because state and local politicians are generally beholden to the government employee unions. Even those policymakers not predisposed to carry water for the unions are hesitant to ruffle the feathers of a sizable voting block, not to mention a vocal one that still has a lot of regular citizens conned into believing government employees are underpaid, selfless, public “servants.”  Trust me, I’ve witnessed this game first hand.

Cauchon also spotlights the big picture problem: “These medical costs are part of a larger burden taxpayers face in providing health care for an aging population. The federal government has a $1.2 trillion unfunded obligation to pay medical costs for retired federal workers and military personnel. Medicare and Social Security push the nation’s unfunded promises above $50 trillion.”  He also notes that the same private sector employees who pay for these benefits via taxes are not so lucky: “Unlike private companies, most governments subsidize health insurance for retired employees.”

Stossel: Stop Hating the Business Community

Reason Magazine, which is just about my favorite publication going today, recently sat down with "20/20" taxpayer/consumer advocate John Stossel. During the interview, Stossel — and his awe-inspiring mustache — aptly articulate his confusion about why people in some circles find it necessary to constantly bash businesses:

This hatred of business — I’m not sure what that’s about. I used to think it was envy, that the college professor is angry that his slightly stupider roommate is making more money than he is because he’s in business. Then you think about the kings and queens of Europe. People didn’t hate them for all their wealth, and their wealth proportionately was vastly greater than now, but they hated the bourgeoisie. They gave them that nasty name. They hated the very people who sold them the things that they needed to make their lives better. What’s that about?

My best guess is that it’s the intuitive reaction that the world is a zero-sum game, that if he makes profit off you, you must’ve lost something. If you don’t study economics, that is how people think. I see why politicians think that way, because that’s how their world works. One wins. Somebody else has to lose. We have a lot of work to do to explain that free commerce doesn’t work that way, that everybody gains.

He also discusses his fondness for free market medicine and school choice, even promoting his web site, stosselintheclassroom.org. Though you may not agree with everything he says (and it’s not entirely G-rated), you can read the transcript of the Reason interview here. At the very least, it should make you think.