The Art of Prediction

Now that the results are in, it’s only fair to deliver a grade on how my predictions went: 

Correct Picks:

  • Obama would win Indiana.
  • Obama would win the White House and win 375 electoral votes to John McCain’s 163. With only North Carolina undecided, the count stands at 349-147.
  • 48 out of 49 states were picked correctly with only Missouri being incorrect with one state remaining.
  • Governor Daniels would easily win re-election.
  • 8 Congressional seats would remain unchanged. (I thought Mike Pence’s and Steve Buyer’s races would be closer, but they’d still win).
  • Greg Zoeller and Tony Bennett would narrowly win and be good bellwether races for the night.
  • Ed Charbonneau would win in the only competitive Senate seat.
  • House Democrats would keep their majority.
  • The Indiana House would end up 52-48 Democrat. One seat, HD26, is still undecided but Republican Randy Truitt is up by 20 votes.

 Incorrect Picks (or near misses):

  • Congressman Mark Souder would lose. Souder won easily with 55% of the vote.
  • Missed the correct winner in two House races (HD26 and HD97).

Overall, the correct picks tallied 183 out of 187 correct (97.9%). Not bad, but the misses sting.

0 thoughts on “The Art of Prediction

  1. Isn’t that a bit of an understatement in the Souder race? Didn’t you guys give him a 20% chance of reelection?

  2. Derek,
    Thank you for checking out our blog and your post. To answer your question simply – yep. We (mostly me) were very wrong on this, but we are also very glad to be wrong on this race. Congressman Souder has been fantastic for the business community.