Tag Archives: independent

Independents Rising

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More and more Hoosiers consider themselves true “independents,” casting aside any political identification with either Republicans or Democrats. 

Twenty percent (20%) of Indiana voters today identify themselves as “independent,” even after factoring out those who self-identify as leaning to one party or the other. This is a 150% increase in true independent voters in just the last six years.

Indiana has whip-sawed in recent elections, delivering the state to President Obama in 2008 in the same year it voted by historic margins for Mitch Daniels. Then in 2010, the state led the nation in a surge for the GOP. What will Indiana independents do in 2012?

These are just some of the findings from a recent statewide poll commissioned by the Indiana Chamber’s political action program, Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG).

Third Parties Crashed

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Third party candidates were hardly Perot-ic in the 2008 general election. Among them, independent Ralph Nader (though technically not in a party this year) garnered the most votes. Somewhat surprising to me, as former GOP Congressman and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr seemed to receive far more media coverage than any of the other candidates. Here are some noteworthy totals (with 97% of precincts reported):

Ralph Nader (Independent): 649,837

Bob Barr (Libertarian Party): 485,400

Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party): 173,202

Cynthia McKinney (Green Party): 141,333

Ron Paul: 19,285

Note: Paul, a Texas Congressman who lost to McCain in the GOP Primary, wasn’t actually running and was only on the ballot in a couple of states (I believe only Louisiana and Montana). Paul actually endorsed Baldwin (a LaPorte native, btw).

Numbers That Matter in Indiana Right Now

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As we approach the last Election Day on November 4, here is a list of key numbers and percentages that have greatly influenced this election.

  • 91% – Percentage of the national population that rates the economic conditions as “only fair" or “poor,” according to Gallup
  • 40% – Key percentage to look for in Indiana is if Obama can win 40% or more of the white vote. If Obama goes north of this number, he likely wins Indiana
  • I 30-49 – Independent 30-49 year old middle age voters are critical in deciding who will win Indiana’s eleven electoral votes
  • 26 – MINIMUM number of new legislators that will show up for the 2009 Indiana General Assembly. This number is likely to go up following the defeat of incumbents
  • 76 – Number of IBRG Endorsed legislative candidates in 2008
  • 1 – Number of truly competitive Senate races on IBRG’s radar screen
  • 8 – Number of competitive House races IBRG is playing in today
  • 13 – House races that are either lean or toss-up
  • +2 R / +3 D – This is the likely range for party change in the Indiana House
  • 345,582 – Newly registered voters in 2008 alone (8.4% of voters)
  • 525,264 – Newly registered voters since 2006 General Election. That means that 12.7% of voters are newly registered since 2006. This is a huge NEW voting block that did not exist two years ago.
  • 455,035 – Absentee ballots cast as of last night. This is already 11% of total registered voters (4,135,301 active voters).

Finally, the last number that may matter most to all of us – 4; there are only four days left to vote.