Tag Archives: 20/20

Predictions: Focusing the Crystal Ball on 2020

Posted on by
Reply

The year 2020 is creeping closer. But if you’re projecting economic forecasts and demographics for eight years from now, it seems like a lifetime away.

Neverthless, the fearless prognosticators at Kiplinger (the authors of weekly management decision-making letters and various other publications and products) consistently weigh in on future conditions. These are a few of their recent insights, in separate reports:

  • Don’t be shocked if inflation doubles, from 2% this year to 4% or a bit more by 2020. Higher interest rates will mean pricier mortages, about 8% compared to 4% now for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The homeownership rate will settle around 66%, higher than now but shy of the peak of 69% in 2006.
  • By 2020, health care will account for nearly one in nine U.S. jobs, adding more than 4 million jobs in the decade. Home health aides will be the fastest growth segment, but there will also be rising demand for registered nurses, physicians and surgeons.
  • Consumer spending in Africa will double by 2020 with the overall economy growing by 5% a year. Joining South Africa as growth hot spots will be Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya. Others to watch: Ghana, Tunisia and Botswana (with plenty of minerals and a stable government).
  • Staying global and extending the time out five more years (to 2025) will result in more megacities. Projected to have 20 million people within its borders by that time (no city today has reached that level) are Mexico City; Tokyo; Shanghai; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Sao Paulo, Brazil; and three Indian cities … Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. New York is listed as a possible ninth. Seven more Chinese cities will top 10 million each, according to the forecasters.

We might not remember to pull this or other predictions out eight years from now, but if we do I imagine the experts will be on target more than a few times.

Braly: Tackle Both Health Care Coverage and Costs

Posted on by
Reply

Angela Braly, CEO of the largest health insurance provider in the country in Indianapolis-based WellPoint, wanted to make two things clear during her Economic Club of Indiana speech today. At some point, the debate that is taking place in Washington and around the country has shifted from health care reform to health insurance reform — and it needs to shift back. Braly, in her remarks before a sellout crowd, said:

  • Inefficiencies in health care are driving up costs at an unsustainable rate
  • Current incentives are wrong in the traditional Medicare system with payment for quantity instead of quality — and she fears the same cost shifting that takes place now would occur in a public option plan
  • "We won’t solve the problem by only focusing on the insurance side of the equation."

Braly notes that Massachusetts has made progress in reducing the number of uninsured in its state, but that system costs have increased from $630 million in 2007 to an estimated $1.3 billion this year. The lesson for the federal level, she adds, is that coverage and costs must be tackled together.

An important topic that has been lost in the shuffle, Braly says, is malpractice reform. The fears of legal action "prevent more disclosure and communication about what might have went wrong. There are tests that are probably unnecessary and diagnostic tools used excessively because of the fears of medical malpractice." The arguments, however, have "fallen on deaf ears" on Capitol Hill.

The WellPoint leader opened her remarks by stating she is an advocate for reform, that all people should have insurance coverage and that insurers should offer coverage to all, including those with pre-existing conditions. But to make all of that possible, that shift in focus must take place. In answering questions, she defended her company’s 4.1% profit margin, said that WellPoint and the industry were prepared to continue to innovate and closed with her thoughts on one action item if she were leading the way in Congress.

"Focus on what is driving costs and how we can affect that. There are great discussions happening, but it doesn’t always make it to the bill." Earlier, she had ended her prepared remarks by saying about reform: "It won’t be easy, and it should not be quick."

Braly’s speech is available here and on the Economic Club of Indiana site. John Stossel of ABC News’ "20/20" is up next on October 6.

John Stossel, Freedom Enthusiast

Posted on by
Reply

If I were you, I’d go ahead and book my tickets now for the Economic Club of Indiana luncheon on October 6 at the Indianapolis Convention Center. The lunch will feature the musings of libertarian journalist/malcontent and winner of 19 Emmys John Stossel of ABC’s "20/20." Stossel, known these days as a champion of free markets (and owner of my second favorite TV mustache, next to that of PGA analyst Gary McCord), actually got his start as a consumer reporter.

Love him or hate him, he’ll probably make you think.

Here’s an excerpt from his blog today as he discusses ABC pulling his piece on health care reform in favor of more Michael Jackson coverage:

Here’s one blog comment, after I reported that ABC will hold my health care report in favor of more Michael Jackson coverage:

"Free market in action. See there Stossel? What’s not to like about that?
Posted by: jan | Jun 26, 2009 5:12:12 PM

p.s. Stossel. You’ve been hoisted on your own petard. Cheerio."

Jan is right. It’s the free market in action. 

Of course, maybe my bosses made the wrong choice.  Maybe more viewers would have tuned in for my health care report.  But the beauty of the market is that if they regularly choose wrong, they will go bankrupt. Networks better at giving the public what we want will take their business.   I’d rather have viewers vote with their remotes than have elites govern our choices, making sure we watch “serious” programming. 

Yes, I am sick of the coverage of Michael Jackson.  I hate it that ABC didn’t run my piece. Free markets sometimes encourage pandering to the masses. I still say, bless the market. The good outweighs the bad.

Free speech means rude obscenity and hate speech.  I treasure free speech too.

Stossel: Stop Hating the Business Community

Posted on by
Reply

Reason Magazine, which is just about my favorite publication going today, recently sat down with "20/20" taxpayer/consumer advocate John Stossel. During the interview, Stossel — and his awe-inspiring mustache — aptly articulate his confusion about why people in some circles find it necessary to constantly bash businesses:

This hatred of business — I’m not sure what that’s about. I used to think it was envy, that the college professor is angry that his slightly stupider roommate is making more money than he is because he’s in business. Then you think about the kings and queens of Europe. People didn’t hate them for all their wealth, and their wealth proportionately was vastly greater than now, but they hated the bourgeoisie. They gave them that nasty name. They hated the very people who sold them the things that they needed to make their lives better. What’s that about?

My best guess is that it’s the intuitive reaction that the world is a zero-sum game, that if he makes profit off you, you must’ve lost something. If you don’t study economics, that is how people think. I see why politicians think that way, because that’s how their world works. One wins. Somebody else has to lose. We have a lot of work to do to explain that free commerce doesn’t work that way, that everybody gains.

He also discusses his fondness for free market medicine and school choice, even promoting his web site, stosselintheclassroom.org. Though you may not agree with everything he says (and it’s not entirely G-rated), you can read the transcript of the Reason interview here. At the very least, it should make you think.