Nate Silver: GOP Has 60% Chance of Taking Control of Senate

Nate Silver has built a brand as a successful prognosticator of U.S. elections — and fantasy baseball projections, for the record. So Democrats are understandably concerned about his prediction that Republicans will regain the U.S. Senate in 2014. The Huffington Post writes:

Cue the hand-wringing in Democratic circles everywhere: Nate Silver says the GOP will probably re-take the Senate in November’s elections.

After he ran the table in 2012, correctly predicting the electoral outcomes in every single state, Silver has become something of a modern-day oracle to political junkies.

On Sunday, Silver took to his new FiveThirtyEight website—and his new TV home on ABC—to deliver one of his breathlessly awaited prognostications.

Republicans need six seats to regain control of the Senate chamber. How many seats did Silver think the GOP would win? “Exactly six,” he told ABC’s Jonathan Karl.

Silver gave Republicans a 60 percent chance of wresting the Senate out of Harry Reid’s hands—a big blow to the final two years of the Obama presidency. In Silver’s words, that only makes the GOP “slightly favored” to win, and there are still very many months to go until November.

Immigration Reform Heats Up; Messer Weighs In

The Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013, S. 744, is currently being debated by the U.S. Senate, with Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) seeking final passage prior to the July 4 recess. The comprehensive reform bill has something to like and something to dislike for just about everyone involved, but the primary political battle lines are being drawn between border security first (a Republican priority) and a path toward legalization and citizenship (a Democratic priority).

The so-called “Gang of 8” has labored mightily to keep a fragile coalition of support together in the Senate, but fissures are materializing. What once looked like a very sizable 70 votes in support has dwindled as the debate has progressed. As of Friday morning, June 21, senators were discussing a new compromise border security proposal in an effort to secure more support for the bill.  
 
The best guess at this point is that an amended S. 744 passes the Senate with overwhelming support from Democrats and just enough Republicans to get over 60 votes and send the legislation to the House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner’s caucus is even more uneasy and polarized than the Senate GOP. Boehner has publicly stated that any bill that does not have majority support from his caucus will not be heard, so the House may take a “piecemeal” approach addressing specific aspects or issues included in S. 744 (and likely tackling and emphasizing border security first). However, the Speaker has also met with the Hispanic Caucus and the House’s own “Gang of 8” seeking a comprehensive, bipartisan measure.
 
Indiana Congressman Luke Messer (R-6th District) told the Indiana Chamber recently that “if we are able to reach agreement on border security and documented status for workers, then we have an opportunity for further dialogue about what we do about citizenship once those workers are documented.
 
“My sense today is that we don’t yet have a consensus about what to do about citizenship, which makes it difficult if you tie all three together. That’s the challenge. There’s an opportunity to come up with a plan this year to deal with those first two topics. Probably it’s going to take demonstrated success on those to be able to move on to citizenship.” (Look for the full Q&A with Congressman Messer in the next BizVoice® magazine, available online June 28.)
 
We see Speaker Boehner’s leadership at a very serious crossroads on this issue, with many conservative Republicans rebelling against any bipartisan deal that includes a path to legalization or naturalization for illegal immigrants currently in the country. How Boehner squares this circle will be fascinating to watch.
 
The Indiana Chamber believes that now is the time to craft a principled, pragmatic reform that secures the border, strengthens the rule of law AND creates a program for undocumented workers to earn legal status, as it is utterly impractical to seek the mass deportation of an estimated 11 million individuals.

How Much Will the Punch Line to This Joke Hurt?

The old joke, although some are not laughing too loudly, if at all, these days, is that democracy is safe when our elected reps and senators are away from Washington.

No joke because many actions in the capital have been, to put it mildly, counterproductive to employers and employees having the ability to succeed. No joke because there are so many issues that need to be addressed in a positive fashion.

The Chamber warned through several venues last week that lawmakers, just back from their extended August recess, were ready to hit the campaign trail once again. That seems to be the case, with this report from CQ Politics

Congressional leaders had a lengthy set of priorities for September, including a defense authorization bill, an immigration measure, food safety legislation, expiring tax policy extensions and fiscal 2011 appropriations. Rank-and-file Democrats and Republicans in both chambers angled for action on additional bills dealing with energy issues, stem cell research and proposals to boost the stagnant economy.

And House Democratic leaders said they were ready to take up anything the Senate passed.

But by the end of last week, Democratic leaders had punted all those issues until after the Nov. 2 elections, setting the stage for a possible pre-election recess as early as Oct. 1. The only items left on the to-do list were a small-business tax and lending package and a stopgap appropriations measure — known as a continuing resolution, or CR — to keep the government running until lawmakers return in mid-November.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev., said that completion of the $725.7 billion fiscal 2011 defense authorization bill would have to wait until after the elections. Republicans had signaled they would block the bill from even coming to the floor because they have not been allowed votes on their priorities.

Reid additionally put off action on the food safety measure until the November lame-duck session. “We are very limited in the time we have before the election,” he said.

Democrats have said they only hope to “debate” before the elections an extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts that expire at the end of the year.

With the Senate gridlocked, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, has based her chamber’s agenda on what the other body can pass.

Another Blow to Public Confidence in Political Leaders

This isn’t a commentary on immigration; it’s a condemnation of political games. And while this is a Democrat example, there are plenty of similar shenanigans taking place on the other side of the aisle.

Really! How can political leaders expect the public they serve to have confidence in them when the focus is simply on saving their own jobs? CongressDaily reports:

Without enough votes firmly in hand, Senate Democratic leaders know they face an uphill battle to pass an immigration measure next week that would enable young adults in the country illegally to become citizens.

But lawmakers and immigration experts said that even if the abrupt campaign to pass the bill goes down in flames, it still could boost
turnout at the voting booths for Democrats in November’s midterm elections and blunt Republican attempts to take over one or both chambers of Congress.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced that he wants to attach the DREAM Act to the FY11 defense authorization bill when it is brought to the Senate floor next week.

Immigration and defense together in one bill? C’mon! And for all the wrong reasons.

Need to Close the Door on DISCLOSE Again

The Supreme Court ruled earlier this year (in Citizens United vs. FEC) that company (and employee) voices were being unfairly silenced by the campaign finance rules that were in place. Democrats in Congress didn’t like what they heard so they attempted to make their way around the decision by coming up with the DISCLOSE Act. For those that care, the acronym (who has the job of coming up with these things) stands for Democracy is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections.

Fortunately, the effort fell short of the 60 Senate votes needed to proceed. But bad ideas (in this case one of the worst ones to come down the pike in a long time, and that’s saying something in a city filled with questionable policy proposals) don’t simply go away. Indiana Chamber members communicated their displeasure the first time around.

CongressDaily reports the latest:

The DISCLOSE Act will head back to the floor for a vote when the Senate returns next month, according to spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., the bill’s lead sponsor.

The measure would implement strict disclosure laws on campaign ads, require corporate leaders to appear in ads much like candidates and severely restrict foreign-owned companies and those that do business with the government. 

Senate Dems and their reform-advocate allies are targeting Sens. Scott Brown, R-Mass., Olympia Snowe, R-Maine and Susan Collins, R-Maine, all of whom voted against cloture last month. The 3 GOPers said the bill was rushed in an attempt to influence the ’10 midterms on Dems’ behalf.

Now, though, reform advocates believe they have removed that most significant objection all 3 GOPers had. If the measure is passed in late Sept. or early Oct., it would not go into effect until after the midterms.

Senate leaders have told their House counterparts that they will bring the bill up again, and that they may let GOPers block it one more time in order to score political points. But after the bill fails, reform groups and senators who back the DISCLOSE Act will try to convince potential GOP allies to join them in passing the bill so it might be implemented after the midterms.

Still, Snowe, Collins and Brown will face pressure from their leader even after it becomes clear the bill wouldn’t impact the midterms. Senate Minority Leader McConnell has been a vocal opponent of the DISCLOSE Act, labeling it a ploy to benefit Dems. McConnell has been successful in keeping his conference together on most controversial votes, making the bill’s prospects uncertain.

Dems also have to deal with Sens. Dianne Feinstein , D-Calif., and Frank Lautenberg , D-N.J., both of whom are opposed to a carve-out that exempts the NRA from certain disclosure provisions. Holman said there is an understanding that the 2 Dems would vote for cloture, getting Dems over the 60 votes required to move the bill to final passage, but then Lautenberg and Feinstein could vote against the final package. Lautenberg and Feinstein both voted for cloture when the bill first came up on July 27.

Here’s What’s Next on Health Care Reform

Congressional floor debate on health care could begin as early as October 13. That’s the goal of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

First, the Senate Finance Committee is expected to vote this week (work resumes on Tuesday) on its version. The only real suspense is whether Republican Olympia Snowe (Maine) will cross over and vote for the measure. At the same time, Reid and other Senate leaders are trying to combine that proposal with elements of the one approved earlier by the House HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) committee.

Despite that HELP proposal, the House is still battling over Medicare reimbursement rates, trying to trim $200 billion from the cost of the bill and the final shape of the public option.

This is becoming the defining issue of the year. Immigration was pushed back early, there doesn’t appear to be the support for EFCA and most are now conceding that cap and trade will have to wait until when, and if, the health care debate is settled.

The drama, particularly when the issue hits the floor, will continue; the results are unknown.

On the Clock in Congress

Congressional leaders are telling both senators and representatives two things — expect to be on the floor for longer periods of time and for more days. The simple reason: so many issues to debate and vote on — and so little time.

The "normal" Tuesday through Thursday vote schedule makes it easier for members to travel back to their districts and (sometimes) homes. It’s good for campaigning and touching base in their districts. If that is the main casualty of spending more time shaping and determining these important laws, so be it.

What’s on the schedule?

  • Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) wants to pass at least two spending bills prior to the July 4 break. Those would be a separate war funding measure and a bill allowing the Food and Drug Administration to regulate tobacco products
  • Reid says to expect roll call votes nearly every day in July and early August, leading up to the August recess. Health care legislation, more of the dozen appropriations bills and a defense authorization measure are likely among top items on that agenda
  • In the House, expect more votes in June and July than what took place during the first five months of the year. In 2007, more than 350 votes were cast during that period and all 12 appropriations bills were passed
  • House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) notes that there will also be a closer watch on the clock, with roll call votes lasting closer to the more traditional 15 minutes. The machines have been left open 25 minutes or more recently to give members more time to return to the floor and cast their votes

Health care reform and climate change legislation are only two of the biggest issues Congress has faced in many years. Add in the consideration of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor (don’t expect a vote before September) and the challenge grows deeper. It’s a chance for Congress to shine and reverse its negative image. Will it be up to the task?