Cook Breaks Down Presidential Race


National political analyst Charlie Cook has spent nearly four decades writing about and predicting election outcomes. All that experience and more, he told an Indiana Chamber Legislative Dinner audience of more than 700 people Tuesday night, was not enough to foresee what has taken place thus far in the 2016 presidential race.

While some candidates have ended their campaigns as a result of poor finishes in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, plenty of questions remain. Despite Bernie Sanders’ close finish in Iowa and convincing win this week, Cook says the Vermont senator will struggle to compete in more diverse states. Hillary Clinton’s biggest obstacle at this time is her potential indictment over the use of her private email server while in the role of Secretary of State. If an indictment comes, Cook predicts that Vice President Joe Biden will quickly get a phone call asking him to reconsider his decision not to run.

On the Republican side, Cook offers that Ted Cruz has emerged as the leader of the conservatives, Donald Trump is “operating in his own lane” and the more established, traditional candidates (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich and until a few days ago Chris Christie) need to have three of them drop out and allow supporters to unite behind the one remaining. The ceiling for Trump’s support is declining, according to Cook. The veteran prognosticator calls Kasich probably the most qualified to serve as President, but at this point expects Cruz and Clinton to earn their party nominations. He notes, however, that both are very unpopular with independent and moderate voters.

In other words, stay tuned.

Governor Mike Pence provided opening remarks at the annual event, presented by Ice Miller, at the Indiana Roof Ballroom.

Fighting Mr. (Brain) Freeze

Ragan recently featured a useful article on how to handle a brain freeze when you’re speaking in public. Whether you’re a CEO, manager or in the cases they presented, a political candidate, handling such an instance with grace could go a long way toward disaster control.

They use the following two video examples of former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as the right and wrong ways to handle this. Although, in fairness, one wonders how Sen. Rubio would have handled the last part of his speech if he was unable to eventually find the final page.

Elephant Race: Analyst Ranks ’16 GOP Candidates

AGreg Valliere of the Potomac Research Group recently ranked the likelihood of 10 Republican hopefuls for the 2016 candidacy for President. Business Insider offers a summary for each candidate, but here’s the list. (And you’ll notice our governor made the list — and some in the media speculate he has a much better shot than that.):

10. Mike Pence
9. Scott Walker
8. Rick Santorum
7. Paul Ryan
6. Chris Christie
5. Mitt Romney
4. Ted Cruz
3. Rand Paul
2. Marco Rubio
1. Jeb Bush